Kotek touts increase in housing permits over last year, but ignores larger shortfall

This past Monday, Aug. 17, Gov. Tina Kotek made a bold claim about housing production in Oregon in a news release titled “Oregon Reverses Statewide Decline in New Housing with Two Years of Growth.”

“I’m fighting to put housing within reach for all Oregonians,” Kotek said in the announcement that included details of an increase from last year in permits for new homes.

“This upward trend demonstrates what’s possible when the state partners successfully with local government and the private sector,” the governor added.

Kotek’s announcement is puzzling because Oregon’s housing production for the past three years has remained far below the ambitious target of 36,000 new housing units a year the governor set in her inaugural address in 2023. At the time, national housing production was trending downward and Oregon’s was declining even faster.

Oregon was on its way to recording nearly 18,000 new permits for Kotek’s first year in office, down from the year before. Sluggish population growth, higher interest rates, and investors’ lack of appetite for Oregon depressed the total even further, to fewer than 15,000 in each of the past two years, 2024 and 2025.

So what’s the basis of Kotek’s newfound optimism? The governor highlighted recent U.S. census data that shows new housing permits through the first six months of 2026 increased compared with the same period in 2025. If the trend continues through year’s end, Oregon will have had two consecutive years of housing growth.

That, her office explained, is a positive trend: The 11.3% increase in permitting new housing units through June 30 comes as permitting in the rest of the country declined 1.3% — and as the 2026 Oregon Housing Needs Analysis says, the state still faces a massive housing shortage.

Although Kotek has made housing a top priority throughout her first term, Oregon has never come close to meeting her production target, despite legislation she successfully sponsored that frees up more land for development, eases zoning restrictions across the state, and has appropriated more than $1 billion for various types of housing.

Kotek’s office acknowledged the state hasn’t met her goals, saying federal headwinds and higher interest rates have been barriers. And as part of the Housing Needs Analysis, Kotek has lowered her annual target twice. It’s now 29,359 units — still about twice this year’s likely production.

Even so, Mike Riddle, president of the Oregon Home Builders Association, said the new permitting numbers are “an encouraging signal.”

“We appreciate the targeted focus from the Legislature and Gov. Kotek, particularly her recognition of how Oregon’s land-use system overly constrains housing production,” Riddle said. “With that said, permitting delays, compounding fees, labor shortages, tax policy, and the broader health of Oregon’s business climate ultimately dictate whether projects pencil out.”

Kotek’s opponent in the November general election, state Sen. Christine Drazan, R-Canby, reacted less positively.

“I want Oregon to build more homes, but claiming success because abysmal housing numbers are slightly less abysmal is exactly what’s wrong with Tina Kotek’s leadership,” Drazan said. “Success is when young families can afford their first home, seniors can afford to stay in the communities they helped build, and we finally have enough housing to bring costs down.”