QuickTake:

Oregon officials predict up to 200,000 state residents could lose their Medicaid benefits if the president’s tax and policy bill  passes Congress this week. The bill could affect thousands in Lane County. 

Oregon faces catastrophic impacts to its safety net programs that provide health care and food to residents if President Donald Trump’s tax and policy bill passes Congress, Gov. Tina Kotek and the state’s Democratic federal lawmakers warned Wednesday. 

Trump and supporters of his legislation have dubbed it the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” But with the bill’s potential to knock upward of 200,000 Oregonians off Medicaid, the program that offers health care to low-income Oregonians, Democratic opponents in Congress and Salem are rejecting that moniker outright — and calling for the bill’s rejection.

The bill has passed the U.S. Senate but has returned to the House of Representatives to work out differences between the version passed by the Senate and the version passed by the House.

As those negotiations continued, Democratic members of the Oregon congressional delegation and Kotek weighed in Wednesday, July 2, during a call with reporters. 

“The reality of this is going to come crashing down on all of us,” said U.S. Rep. Val Hoyle, whose district includes Lane County.

About 1 in 3 Oregonians is on Medicaid, which provides medical, dental and behavioral health care services. As of May, nearly 1.5 million Oregonians were enrolled statewide in the Oregon Health Plan, the state’s Medicaid plan. That statewide trend holds up in Lane County, where about 131,000 people are enrolled in Medicaid. 

The Oregon Health Authority estimates that between 100,000 and 200,000 Oregonians could lose Medicaid coverage due to challenges of demonstrating compliance with the bill’s work requirements. Opponents of the bill, including Kotek, a Democrat, said the increased red tape to comply with Medicaid benefits would create a hardship for working families. The bill also would require states to verify a person’s Medicaid eligibility every six months. 

“This is devastating for the state of Oregon,” Kotek said. “So let’s remember every single year, Oregonians pay their federal taxes, and those dollars come back to our state through vital services like health care and food assistance and other programs. That’s how the system has worked for decades. That’s how it should work. The Trump administration and Republicans in Congress have broken and will break and are breaking that system.”

The health authority did not have estimates for how many Lane County residents potentially would lose Medicaid benefits and its estimates are preliminary as proposals in Congress have shifted. The state estimates that about 14% of Medicaid recipients could lose coverage; if that percentage holds in Lane County, that would be about 18,000 people.

Members in the Oregon Health Plan often already work jobs. Statewide, as many as 462,000 Oregonians enrolled in the program would be subject to work requirements to keep their coverage.

The proposal’s eligibility checks every six months is especially worrisome for Oregon officials. Currently, Oregon’s Medicaid program has the eligibility checks once every two years, meaning recipients keep their benefits for two years. The state’s program keeps younger children on for even longer. Children, once enrolled, only need to renew after two years or when they turn 6, whichever comes later. 

Kotek said working families with busy schedules shouldn’t face administrative barriers. 

“That is just a cruel way to lower the caseload,” Kotek said. 

Food benefits 

State officials also warn the bill will lead to reduced food benefits for Oregonians who rely upon the Supplemental Food Assistance Program, or SNAP. The program provides low-income households with food assistance. 

The federal cuts for Oregon would be an estimated $425 million annually, according to Kotek and the Oregon Department of Human Services’ initial preliminary analysis. 

“Oregon doesn’t have the money to backfill that loss,” Kotek said.

In Oregon, about 1 in 6 people rely on the program every month for food, including children, seniors and people with disabilities. That’s about 740,000 people statewide. 

The state’s analysis is unclear about how many Oregonians may lose food benefits and a spokesperson for the state agency was unable to provide an estimate. However, the analysis in general concludes the bill would force states to cut coverage or possibly terminate benefits entirely.

“This would leave tens of thousands of people in Oregon without food,” the analysis says, without elaborating on the figures. 

The impacts would ripple widely through families, immigrants and refugees, rural areas and veterans, the analysis predicts. 

Hoyle and her colleagues are warning of dire consequences — and aren’t mincing words:

“I’ll just start off very plainly and say that I’ve said this over and over and over again: ‘This bill is trash,’” said U.S. Rep. Janelle Bynum, D-Happy Valley. 

Meanwhile, the Democratic lawmakers in the House wait for the chance to vote against the bill — which could come before Independence Day. Trump has signaled he wants it passed by July 4 if possible. 

“They want to move it by July 4, because this is a loyalty test to Donald Trump,” Hoyle said. “This is not about the policy.”

Ben Botkin covers politics and policy in Lane County. He has worked as a journalist since 2003, most recently at the Oregon Capital Chronicle, where he covered justice, health and human services and documented regional efforts to combat fentanyl addiction. Botkin has worked in statehouses in Idaho, Nevada, Oklahoma and, of course, Oregon. When he's not working, you'll find him road tripping across the West, hiking or surfing along the Oregon Coast.