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If you’re looking for a saving grace after the last weekend, consider this: While the Ducks haven’t exactly been here before, they have put together some pretty decent seasons overall despite coming out of the gates sluggish in September.
No, nothing really compares to Oregon’s 39-31 defeat to Oklahoma State, the first loss to an unranked opponent in Dan Lanning’s five seasons.
It’s hard to sugarcoat that one.
But it’s not terribly different from the norm in a month where the Ducks have performed worse against expectations than any other.
Not that you could tell by Oregon’s record.
Under Lanning, the Ducks are 14-2 against FBS teams in September with an average scoring margin of 17.9 points. That’s almost identical to October (12-2, +18.1) and November (14-2, +17.4).
The difference is how often September has gotten uncomfortable.
Five of Oregon’s 14 September FBS wins under Lanning have been decided by 8 points or less. That’s happened just once in 12 October wins and three times in 14 November wins.
There was 44-41 at Washington State in 2022, the escape at Texas Tech in 2023, needing a last-second field goal to beat Boise State in 2024, Penn State going to double-overtime last season and then Boise State again hanging around until the end two weeks ago.
Now, the Ducks have had some lopsided wins in that stretch. Did you know they beat Oklahoma State 69-3 last year? But then there are others not included in the numbers above, like Oregon’s 24-14 victory over FCS Idaho to begin the 2024 season.
That one was in August, anyway.
The broader point remains: More than any other month, September has been when Oregon has looked like it’s still figuring itself out. And this September, it seems the Ducks have more to figure out than in the past: Oregon has fallen short of the betting spread by an average of 24.5 points through two games.
The good news: History suggests the Ducks tend to get better as the season goes on.
We’ve just never seen them have this much ground to make up this early in the Lanning era.
Beginning to heal
Friday night against Portland State probably isn’t the kind of game that can fully redeem a 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State, either.
But it can be a start.
Dante Moore began turning the page when he spoke with the media on Tuesday.
Moore acknowledged his own misreads, misthrows and even a pre-snap tendency that opponents may have picked up on. Now Oregon gets a chance to show it has learned something from all of it.
“That’s not who we are as an offense,” Moore said. “We’ve been attacking it this whole week, and we’re excited for our next opportunity.”
So what, exactly, should the Ducks look like if they’re beginning to fix what went wrong? That’s what I dug into ahead of Friday night.
Facing the music
Oregon has spent the better part of Lanning’s tenure showing us what it looks like when everything is working.
Saturday in Stillwater was something different. Oregon didn’t just lose to Oklahoma State, it got pushed around by a team it beat by 66 points a year ago.
So, what does Oregon look like when the armor cracks?
In Sunday’s Duck Report, I wrote about why the answer may tell us more about Lanning’s program than all those polished wins ever did.
One last look
The Ducks were out-gained 554-281, struggled to protect Moore and made too many mental errors. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, made sure this wasn’t remembered as some fluky upset.
“Our guys are much more capable,” Lanning said. “All that starts with me. I didn’t prepare our guys well enough.”
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QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Everybody loves it when you’re scoring a lot of points, winning games and things are easy. But I think I embrace the moments most when we’re in a tough situation and have to crawl, fight and get out of it.
— Oregon quarterback Dante Moore
UPCOMING GAMES
- Volleyball vs. Portland State • 6 p.m. Thursday
- Soccer at USC • 6 p.m. Friday
- Football vs. Portland State • 7:30 p.m. Friday
- Volleyball vs. Oregon State • 1 p.m. Sunday
STORIES I’m WORKING ON
Make sure to check out Sunday’s Duck Report for coverage from the Portland State game, then we’re heading south to Los Angeles.
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Didn’t Green Day have a song about September?
Tyson
