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Overview:
With measles outbreaks rising nationwide, local doctors are moderately concerned about what could happen in Lane County if unvaccinated travelers bring the contagious virus home. Young children, especially preschoolers, are most at risk, as vaccination rates in that group are at 90% — short of the 95% needed for herd immunity.
As measles outbreaks rise across the United States, Lane County’s greatest risk comes from travelers who are not fully vaccinated, according to public health experts and doctors.
It happened before in the county — in 2015, when a 40-year-old man brought measles back from Disneyland — and again in 2019, when someone contracted it while flying home from Amsterdam.
But this year, the concern hits closer to home. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) declared measles eliminated in the United States in 2000, because cases only occurred when brought in from other countries. Now, that measles-free status on American soil is in jeopardy, as most cases are spreading domestically without originating from international travel.
The United States has nearly 900 measles cases, with reports in neighboring states like California and Washington. Oregon has no cases so far this year.
If the disease spreads to Lane County and young children are exposed, it could be especially dangerous for unvaccinated preschoolers. Currently, 90% of children ages 19 months through 5 years in the county are up to date on their first measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, according to the Oregon Health Authority (OHA). That’s below the 95% vaccination rate needed for herd immunity — the level of immunity in the community that prevents measles from spreading.
For kindergarteners within the entire K–12 system in Lane County, however, vaccination rates meet herd immunity levels, with first- and second-dose coverage at 96% and 95%, respectively, as of 2025. These rates have remained stable, fluctuating by no more than a percentage point over the past decade.
With the K-12 population at herd immunity this year, Lane County’s Senior Public Health Officer Dr. Patrick Luedtke doesn’t expect a large outbreak like those seen in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. However, he cautions that the risk shouldn’t be underestimated, as gaps in vaccination coverage — especially among young children — still leave room for an outbreak, particularly given how quickly the virus can spread.
If one person becomes infected, up to 90% of their unvaccinated close contacts could also contract the disease.
“Most people think measles is just a fever and a rash,” he said. “This is such a nasty infection that your body mounts a massive response and does not want to forget it.”
Thwarting extreme measles cases
MMR vaccination rates have declined in pockets of the country and dipped for young children in Lane County. For the Pre-K population, rates have not dropped below 84 percent in Lane County, according to OHA. Only two adult measles cases have occurred here over the last decade.
Dr. Monique Carroll, a physician with McKenzie Pediatrics, has never seen a measles case in her clinic.
She’s moderately concerned, however, because of shifting public perceptions of the vaccine.
“What I’m seeing more of is parents who have vaccinated their older children, who are now deciding not to vaccinate their younger children, because of things they are hearing,” said Carroll.
In televised interviews on major networks, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has shared contradictory messages about vaccine safety and offered remedies without scientifically backed evidence. It follows a nationwide decline of childhood vaccination rates that began before the pandemic — tied to a mix of political, cultural, and religious views that lead some parents to opt out of vaccinations for themselves or their children.
For those hesitant to vaccinate, doctors like Luedtke and Carroll urge parents to consider the lifelong consequences. Once measles begins to spread widely, serious complications become more common, including encephalitis, blindness, and deafness.
“If more people are not vaccinating, those are the things that we’re going to see,” Carroll said.
Receiving both recommended MMR doses is 97% effective at preventing measles, according to the CDC. In rare cases, some people can still get measles after being fully vaccinated, but the symptoms are usually mild and don’t lead to the worst-case effects.
Measles often starts with a high fever, cough, runny nose, and red, watery eyes. After a few days, a rash typically appears on the face and then spreads to the rest of the body.
If a measles case does reach Oregon, OHA will post guidelines. For information about symptoms and protections, visit the OHA website here and the Lane County Public Health Website.
Sarah Lorge Butler contributed to this report.
