QuickTake:

The expiration of the tax credits that help people afford health insurance is a key sticking point in Congress that has prompted the federal shutdown. In Lane County, households face premium increases in 2026 that could cost households $1,000 a month or more, Oregon’s two Democratic U.S. senators said Monday.

Bartley Armitage and his wife, Carla Zimmerman, are facing a dramatic increase in the cost of their health insurance.

The couple’s monthly premium is on track to quadruple to more than $2,200 a month. The two retirees purchase coverage on the insurance marketplace through the Affordable Care Act, which provides tax credits that allow people to get insurance at a lower rate. Their monthly premium currently is $443.

Higher insurance premium costs will ripple across Lane County and Oregon, depending on the plan and each family’s circumstances. About 140,000 residents statewide rely upon plans purchased through the marketplace. Often, they are working families who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid, but who would struggle to afford health insurance without the discount. 

Of Lane County’s approximately 379,000 residents, 11,804 are enrolled in marketplace plans. About 9,900 of those qualified for the premium tax credits.

The potential increase is “pretty ridiculous,” Armitage, a 64-year-old retired carpenter, said at a Eugene press conference Monday, Oct. 13, standing alongside Democratic U.S. Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley and Lane County public health leaders. “I feel like it’s cold-hearted and cruel.”

The expiration of the tax credits has played out in Congress as Republican and Democratic members have been unable to pass a budget, leading to the federal government shutdown that started Oct. 1. Congressional Democrats are pushing for the continuation of the tax credits, saying the premium increases would be devastating in Oregon and across the country.

“This is a real-life health-care horror show for Oregonians,” Wyden said at the event.

The federal shutdown continues as the open enrollment period for insurance plans is set to start Nov. 1, which adds urgency to the Democratic push to extend the credits. 

“We are not going to support bills that put rates up into the stratosphere or kick Oregonians off their health care,” Wyden said. “That is a red line, folks. You don’t beat up on vulnerable people.”

Lane County health system squeezed 

Wyden and Merkley teamed up for the press event in the Eugene building that houses the Charnelton Community Clinic, part of Community Health Centers of Lane County. The county’s federally qualified health center program treats about 30,000 county residents every year, including patients on Medicaid, marketplace plans and people who lack insurance.

Yet the county’s clinics and other parts of the region’s health care system are facing increasing pressures, whether from the expiration of the tax credits or federal cuts to the Medicaid system, which serves about 130,000 county residents.

Lane County recently finalized a plan to consolidate its health center’s clinics and trim programs to keep costs in line with revenues. So far, the county has done that work without trimming clinical staff, but officials warn they can only do so much as pressures increase.

“The more care we provide without payment, the less able we are to serve our community,” said Eve Gray, director of Lane County Health and Human Services.

Merkley warned the situation puts people in a bind of choosing between less money for essential needs like housing and food or opting out of insurance altogether. The latter option means people are more likely to have deteriorating health due to a lack of consistent care, he said.

“If they forgo the insurance, then we’re looking at folks who don’t go to the doctor until they have a crisis, and then that means the emergency room, and that means the problem is much worse than if they’ve been able to go earlier,” Merkley said.

Lane County Commissioner Laurie Trieger said the premium increases come amid cascading cost increases and inflation in other areas, such as groceries and unaffordable housing.

“Now is the worst possible time to pile on with extraordinary insurance premium hikes,” Trieger said. “We cannot bargain away or compromise care for one group or for one type of service in order to provide it for another. We must provide care for everyone who needs it at a price point that they can afford.”

Meanwhile, challenges persist at the state level, as Lane County’s largest Medicaid insurer, PacificSource, has announced plans to stop offering Medicaid services in the county in 2026, forcing state officials to scramble for alternatives.

Tough choices to financially survive 

For Armitage and another family at the press conference, the outlook for 2026 appears grim and uncertain, even as they have steady work.

Chris Bratton of Veneta, a self-employed 45-year-old hairdresser, has a marketplace plan for himself, his wife and his two daughters. The family’s plan will go up from about $700 a month to $1,700 without the tax credit, Bratton said. That’s not including any increases due to inflation or a rise in the overall premium.

The plan doesn’t cover everything and they pay out-of-pocket for certain items, including allergy shots for their older daughter. Bratton works as many as 50 hours a week and his wife is a part-time dental hygienist.

For now, families like Bratton’s are poring over their family expenses, looking for options to financially survive.

“It puts us in a tough position,” he said.

Ben Botkin covers politics and policy in Lane County. He has worked as a journalist since 2003, most recently at the Oregon Capital Chronicle, where he covered justice, health and human services and documented regional efforts to combat fentanyl addiction. Botkin has worked in statehouses in Idaho, Nevada, Oklahoma and, of course, Oregon. When he's not working, you'll find him road tripping across the West, hiking or surfing along the Oregon Coast.