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The next step for organizers, including state Sen. Kevin Mannix, would be to gather signatures. The tax they seek to kill raised $423 million in the last budget year. Meanwhile the state is facing reductions in federal revenue for services like Medicaid and food assistance.
A ballot initiative to eliminate Oregon’s estate tax, Initiative Petition 51, is moving forward even as Gov. Tina Kotek and state lawmakers digest the coming budget hole created by President Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Oregon’s estate tax generated $423 million in the 2024-25 budget year, according to state figures — up from $339 million the previous year.
On Sept. 30, Oregon Secretary of State Tobias Read released a certified ballot title for Initiative Petition 51: “Nullifies estate tax, which applies to estates of $1 million plus; prohibits similar local taxes.”
Democratic lawmakers will count on estate tax money more than ever amid a slowing economy and federal budget cuts.
During last week’s legislative days, Oregon’s nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Office circulated the latest estimates of the impact of the federal cuts, which the office expects to total $15.1 billion in lost federal funds from the 2025-27 budget biennium through the 2029-31 biennium.
About 95% of the cuts will come from two programs that benefit Oregonians with the lowest incomes: Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
The hit gets much worse over time: The Legislative Fiscal Office expects the cost of the cuts to be $1.03 billion in the 2025-27 biennium, $5.6 billion in 2027-2029, and $8.01 billion in 2029-31.
“Donald Trump’s funding cuts and health care policies are putting Oregon on the road to disaster,” said Oregon House Speaker Julie Fahey, D-Eugene, on Oct. 3. “These policies will devastate Oregon families for years to come.”
While Fahey and her legislative colleagues can do little to change federal policy, they also face a new threat to a key existing state revenue stream.
Currently, Oregon is one of just 12 states that levy an estate tax. That tax kicks in on estates worth $1 million or more, the lowest estate tax threshold of any state. The tax rate starts at 10% of the value and rises to 16% on estates worth more than $9.5 million. (Rhode Island, which increases its threshold with inflation, has the second-lowest threshold, at $1.8 million.)
State Rep. Kevin Mannix, R-Salem, a co-chief petitioner for Initiative Petition 51, has long tried to end Oregon’s estate tax. In 2012, Mannix and his allies put Measure 84 on the ballot. That measure, which would have phased out the estate tax over four years, failed 54% to 46%. Since then, Mannix has chipped away at the issue, winning a victory in 2023 with a bill that created an exemption of $15 million for natural resource properties, such as farms and forestland.
In 2025, lawmakers proposed a number of bills that would have increased the estate tax threshold or ended the tax. None passed. Progressive groups, such as Tax Fairness Oregon, have consistently opposed ending the estate tax, while many Republicans and business groups have supported raising the threshold or ending the tax.
The certified ballot title Mannix and his supporters got last week mirrors the draft ballot title. In written comments on the draft title, Mannix and others protested the middle clause “which applies to estates of $1 million plus,” saying it “distorts the measure’s true scope and risks misinforming voters.” The appeal deadline for the certified ballot title is Oct. 14.
If the End the Death Tax campaign decides to move forward with the initiative, it must gather 117,173 valid Oregon voter signatures to qualify for the November 2026 ballot.
