Mailbag: Is Oregon a defensive school now?

UO chose not to get the band back together. What does passing on the blur and instead choosing the defensive-minded Dan Lanning mean for the product on the field?

(Eric Evans photo of Noah Sewell, courtesy of GoDucks.com)

The Ducks have a coach. They have a handful of players signed and a bowl game to play. And you, dear readers of The I-5 Corridor, had some questions.

To the mailbag we go.

Oregon had 5 Associated Press All-Pac-12 1st team representatives — all defensive players. With new coach Dan Lanning, does Oregon turn more concertedly now to a defense-first mindset, after decades as an offense-first school? — Reinwald

I mean, it’s kind of been happening already, hasn’t it? 

The 2019 Rose Bowl team gets remembered now for it being a coronation of sort for Justin Herbert, but what gets lost from that season was just how good Andy Avalos’ defense was that year. 

The Ducks finished ninth in scoring defense (16.5 ppg), were 13th against the run and finished second in the country with 20 interceptions. It was a defense so good, that in November of that year with Oregon sitting No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings, I wrote this story: 

Identity change: Offensive stars from Oregon’s past discuss defense-minded present. 

Not going to lie, pretty great story idea. I had Kenjon Barner, Joey Harrington, Vernon Adams Jr. and Keanon Lowe all talking about what it meant for Oregon to be winning with its defense. 

“I think that’s the cool thing we’re watching right now from Oregon,” Lowe said at the time. “This team that we’re watching has a defensive identity, and that identity is that they’re going to play relentlessly and come after you all game long and not let up. It’s impressive.” 

Oregon’s defense was never that good again under Cristobal, who replaced the Boise State-bound Avalos last season with Tim DeRuyter. But that year was the prototype, with the Ducks loading up in the 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes with 5-star defensive players Kayvon Thibodeaux, Noah Sewell, Dontae Manning and Justin Flowe. 

Had Oregon’s defense not been gutted by injuries in 2021, the Ducks might have been able to ride that group to the playoffs. Which sounds ridiculous after watching what Utah did to Oregon, but hell, after seeing Flowe in Week 1 you could have told me he would finish the season with 200 tackles and I would have believed it.

So yes, with the talent already on this roster I see Oregon leaning heavily into becoming a consistent presence in top 25 defensive statistics. But Lanning also knows you can’t be limited on the other end.  

“The No. 1 indicator in college football of wins and losses is explosive plays,” Lanning said Monday. “We’re going to be a team that’s built off of explosive plays on offense, defense and special teams. You have to be able to push the ball downfield, you have to be able to attack in the air and on the ground. That’s definitely going to be part of our approach here.” 

Do you see a world where the NCAA football coaching carousel ever stops? Or is this just what it’s going to be? The days of having longterm continuity on the coaching staff are likely gone, but if Oregon has to compete for coaches like it does recruits are they ever going to reach the mountain top (i.e. win the playoff)? — Joachim Jacobs

It’s going to keep going until the money stops coming in. There’s just too much of it in the sport these days for any of the schools trying to compete for playoff berths to be stagnant.

And the early signing day certainly doesn’t help. 

Just look at how much USC was able to instantly better itself by poaching Lincoln Riley, who then got a quick flip from 5-star Oklahoma running back pledge Raleek Brown. The Trojans signed only six recruits on Wednesday, but it would have been less had they not hired Riley when they did. 

The same goes for Oregon. In an ideal world, Dan Lanning finishes up his season at Georgia undisturbed. His defense has played a major role in Georgia’s run to the College Football Playoff and a shot at the national title is why they’ve put in so much work. And instead of being focused on that, Lanning is juggling starting his job at Oregon at the same time. 

But a $4.6 million annual salary for a first-year head coach will pay for that divided attention. Think about that: Lanning has no previous experience as a head coach and will make $200,000 more a year than Cristobal was making on his third contract with the Ducks. 

And yeah, this can all make it harder to reach the mountaintop. Oregon got its coach poached two weeks ago and on Wednesday just seven players signed their letter of intent. Last year in December that number was 20. Lanning will have about a month to make inroads before the final signing day, but it’s going to be a climb. 

Hard to keep track of who has entered the transfer portal, who has declared for the draft, and who has “de-committed”. Can you update that?

As well, is it confirmed that Anthony Brown is not returning? — Matt Moran

Oregon signed seven players Wednesday. Five players are still committed and unsigned, though it’s certainly going to be “wait and see” when it comes to high-profile recruits such as top 50 wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. 

So, what’s the official damage in the wake of Cristobal’s departure to Miami? 

The Ducks have lost eight players from a once-top-10 class. 

They lost: 

Kelvin Banks Jr., a five-star offensive lineman who signed with Texas. 

TJ Dudley, a four-star linebacker. 

Tanner Bailey, a four-star quarterback. 

Jahlil Florence, a four-star cornerback. 

Emar’rion Winston, a three-star linebacker and brother of former UO linebacker Lamar Winston Jr.

Cameron Williams, a three-star offensive lineman joining Banks at Texas. 

Landon Hullaby, a three-star defensive back who signed with Texas Tech.

Andre Dollar, a three-star tight end who signed with Washington State. 

That’s rough, and it’s reflected in Oregon’s 31st-ranked 2022 class — UO’s worst rank since 2008. 

“We could have had a lot more people sign paperwork and sent across the board on Wednesday if that’s what we wanted to do,” Lanning said. “It was important for me to communicate that, ‘Hey, we have time.’ There’s another signing day coming up (in February). This isn’t a sprint. It’s not a sprint to get wrong. Let’s walk and get it right.” 

Wide receiver Devon Williams declared for the NFL Draft this week and no, I don’t think Brown will be coming back for a sixth season of college football. 

Should I feel old now that the Oregon HC is younger than me? F.A. 

I was just about to write a long and caring response about how we all get there at some point, full well knowing that Lanning, at 35, is still older than me. So it would have been performative. Then Lanning went out and hired Florida State’s Kenning Dillingham as offensive coordinator.

Dillingham is 31. 

I’m going to need some time. 

…

Lanning is Oregon’s youngest head coach since Prink Callison, who after leading the Medford High School boys basketball teams to state titles in 1924 and 1929, naturally had the resume for the head football position at Oregon when hired at age 33 in 1932.

Other ages of Oregon coaches when hired: 

Mario Cristobal 47 

Willie Taggart 41

Mark Helfrich 40

Chip Kelly 46

Mike Bellotti 45

Rich Brooks 36

Don Read 39 

Dick Enright 37 

Jerry Frei 43 

Len Cassanova 46

Jim Aiken 48

Tex Oliver 39

Historically speaking, Lanning’s a young one and it wouldn’t surprise me if that becomes more of a trend. College football is a grind, especially if you’re the head coach of a school that expects to compete at the elite levels of recruiting. It’s what wore Chris Petersen out, who hung up his headset at Washington at 55.

From my perspective, I’m excited about it. Cristobal was the head coach I’ve worked with the most and there was a 19-year gap in age there. I don’t think that hurt our relationship, but it certainly doesn’t help with even the most basic aspects of small talk. 

A couple of years ago I asked about whether Oregon fans should be happy about Mario Cristobal’s tenure if he turned into Mike Bellotti 2.0. Your response and the comments from fellow Oregon fans are interesting considering recent events and Cristobal’s departure to Miami.

My question is this: If a crystal ball told you Oregon hiring Justin Wilcox would result in a Mike Bellotti 2.0 tenure with similar results and stability, while hiring someone besides Wilcox would be a complete mystery, should Oregon hire Wilcox knowing the results and stability that would come with him or take a chance and pursue that unknown hire and the mystery results they’d produce? — Cyrus

(This one was from before the hiring, but still wanted to take a crack at it)

Mike Bellotti had the No. 2 team in the AP poll twice within a seven-year span. The Ducks ended the year No. 2 in 2001 after going 11-1, and 2007’s team, which reached No. 2 in Week 10, had its title game hopes end with Dennis Dixon’s injury. 

The highs were there, and I’m assuming that under this Bellotti 2.0 hypothetical we would take into account Oregon’s improved facilities and relevance on a national level. 

In that scenario, with Justin Wilcox playing the role as the modern day Bellotti, the Oregon Ducks would make the occasional run at the playoff and have the stability of a hometown guy running the show. There would be incredible value there. That’s a very attractive option. 

What would worry me in this scenario is this: The Ducks went 20-17 between 2002 and 2004. And while Bellotti pulled out of that slump with a 10-2 2005 season, I just don’t think a current Oregon coach would be given that sort of leeway here 20 years and hundreds of millions of dollars invested later. There’s too much money at play to be mediocre for three years. There’s too much momentum at stake in recruiting. 

And that isn’t to underplay Bellotti’s tenure at all. He’s a hall of fame coach who played a key role in turning Oregon into the forward thinking program it has become. Lanning doesn’t have a win to his name. 

Would you take a Bellotti tenure as the floor? Absolutely. I just don’t know if that type of tenure exists at Oregon today. 

Now that the Ducks don’t have a chance at a championship are you following any Oregon teams that HAVE made it to a championship game? — Kevin

Been in a lot of tough locker rooms. None harder than after last night’s beer league 3-1 championship loss. Here is Ryan Holmes, star defenseman, processing it all. 

Have a good weekend everyone. I’ll be down at Matthew Knight Arena for Oregon vs. No. 1 Baylor Saturday, so expect coverage from that.

— Tyson Alger