Tariffs didn’t start Oregon’s economic slowdown, but they exacerbated it, report finds

President Donald Trump’s tariffs contributed to a $442 million loss in Oregon’s 2025-27 budget cycle, state economists estimate. 

That’s according to a new report Gov. Tina Kotek’s office released Monday, Aug. 3, evaluating the impacts new tariffs have had on Oregon after the Trump administration fully imposed them in March 2025. The report’s release coincided with Oregon and a coalition of other Democratic-led states suing the administration Monday for the third time over tariffs after courts twice struck down Trump’s earlier tariff edicts.

State economists from the Office of Economic Analysis, the Oregon Department of Employment and Business Oregon produced the report.  

Tariffs, taxes imposed on goods from other countries, are a key part of Trump’s economic agenda. Trump framed tariffs as a way to incentivize more American manufacturing, raise government revenue and promote fair trade. Unlike the tariffs in his first term mostly targeting China, Trump in his second term imposed tariffs on nearly all of the country’s trading partners. 

State economists estimate tariffs reduced consumer demand and spending, corporate profitability and labor income that would have gone toward the state’s general fund, lottery earnings and corporate activity tax. 

Oregon importers paid nearly $3 billion in tariffs between March and December 2025, state economists estimate. Nearly 60% of that stemmed from tariffs imposed under the Trump administration.

That includes when Oregon importers paid an estimated $51.6 in tariffs in March 2025. They paid nearly 10 times as much in December, as the administration ramped up its tariffs, according to the report. 

Kotek in a statement said it’s critical for Oregonians to understand how tariffs impact the state’s economy. 

“As a coastal state with major ports, we move billions of dollars’ worth of seafood, agricultural products, and manufactured goods across the globe,” she said. “Our ports also support thousands of good-paying jobs for Oregon families. As President Trump continues to double down on reckless trade policy, my focus is on driving down costs for Oregonians and ensuring businesses can continue to flourish here.”

Oregon’s exports fell while imports rose

Oregon ranks sixth in the country in exports per capita, with nearly three-quarters of all goods exported to Mexico, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, Japan and Korea. 

But for the first time in recent years, imports in Oregon outpaced exports — a trend unique to only the Beaver State, according to the report. 

While exports grew on a national level by 5.7%, exports from Oregon dropped by 17% in 2025 as the state exported $5.8 billion less in goods than it did in 2024.

Oregon received $30.7 billion in imports. State economists attributed the change to tariffs, saying impending tariffs incentivized many Oregon businesses to stock up on as many international goods before the new rates took effect. 

Import growth especially occurred in the semiconductor industry, where imports increased by more than $2 billion in 2025 compared with 2024.  The state also saw increases in imports of vehicles, apparel, footwear, chemicals, fertilizers and beverages.

Oregon businesses feel the impacts of tariffs

To understand the impact of tariffs on Oregon businesses, state economists analyzed a randomized survey sent to about 3,900 businesses. 

Of the 870 Oregon businesses that responded, nearly 60% said the cost of the products they buy domestically went up. Another 45% of respondents said new tariffs increased the cost of international products. 

Additionally, 41% said they increased prices of the products they sold in the United States because of tariffs. 

More than 77% of respondents reported no changes in wages paid, workweek hours, layoffs and hiring because of tariffs, though 12% reported a drop in workweek hours and 9% reported tariff-related layoffs.   

While tariffs posed real impacts to the state’s economy, economists concluded they amplified the state’s existing economic weaknesses rather than creating them outright. 

“The broad majority of Oregon and Oregon-based businesses have witnessed the economic costs of tariffs relatively quickly,” state economist Carl Riccadonna said in a statement. “Meanwhile, the expected benefits — such as bringing supply chains back to the U.S. and boosting related employment — have not materialized in a measurable way.”

Oregon announces third lawsuit against Trump tariffs

The state of Oregon led two lawsuits challenging Trump’s earlier rounds of tariffs, prevailing after the U.S. Supreme Court in February ruled in the Beaver State’s favor. The Trump administration has since switched to other pieces of legislation to justify its tariffs. 

Attorney General Dan Rayfield announced the state’s third lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s latest rounds of tariffs on more than 80 countries that account for more than 99% of all U.S. imports. That includes a new 50% tariff on certain goods from Canada. 

“Despite losing every step of the way, Trump is trying yet again to inflict more chaos on working families and homegrown Oregon businesses,” Rayfield said in a statement. “We’re all paying the price for these unlawful tariffs, not foreign governments. Just as many families are back to school shopping, these tariffs are driving up costs for necessities like clothing and electronics.”