New census data shows Oregon losing residents in prime earning years

Oregonians in their peak earning years–when they can contribute most to the state’s economy—are moving out of the state faster than their 30-to-50-year-old peers are moving in.

This finding is based on an OJP analysis of the most recently available U.S. Census data, released in January.

Oregon relies more heavily on income taxes than most states, so it suffers more from this outflow, says ECOnorthwest researcher Aditya Gadkari. The exodus of workers in their prime earning years means less revenue for the state.

“We’re losing the ability of our jurisdictions to provide high levels of services,” Gadkari says.

The largest influx of new Oregon residents is young adults, either college-age or relatively early in their careers, typically earning far less than those leaving. Lane County, home to the University of Oregon, and Benton County, home to Oregon State University, both saw growth in the number of adult teens.

Oregon’s aging population is well documented — OJP previously reported that deaths outnumbered births over the past five years. A further decline in new Oregon residents is expected as net international migration to the U.S. in 2026 is estimated at 321,000 — only 12% of its 2024 total, according to the census.

Getting more people to move to Oregon is key to the state thriving, Gadkari says.

“If we have policies that help improve affordability,” he says, “it is going to help in both the retention piece — keeping the people who are here, who want to stay here — and it’s also going to help us attract people.”

Many factors — among them job opportunities, affordable housing, and education choices — play a role in who moves in and out of Oregon, Gadkari says.

Although rural Oregon has lost population in recent decades, many of Oregon’s rural counties in 2024 had more out-of-state residents moving in than Oregonians moving out. Malheur County, bordering Idaho and Nevada, saw a net gain of more than 1,000 people. Multnomah County had the biggest net loss, about 4,400 people.

In Malheur County, the median sale price of a home was $300,000 in February 2026, according to analysis by real estate company Redfin. In Multnomah County, it was $461,500.

Generally, there are “inflection points” at which people are most likely to make a significant move, according to Gadkari. But once someone has a mortgage, they are likely to stay in that home for a while, he says.

Affordable housing remains a persistent problem in Oregon, with housing costs far outpacing gains in household income over the past two decades, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data.

“A lot of what I’ve seen in terms of the dynamics and population really do have to do with affordability,” says former state economist Mark McMullen, now with the Common Sense Institute Oregon. “The places people are moving to are much less expensive than where they’re moving from.”