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QuickTake:
While egg prices spike, the price of chicken remains relatively stable. Oregon's state economist points to three reasons why that's the case. Among them: Since egg-laying hens live longer than broiler chickens, they're more susceptible to market disruptions like bird flu.
Many Oregonians have been struck by the recent surge in egg prices at grocery stores. A carton of eggs now feels like a luxury item, leading some to wonder why chicken nuggets and other chicken products haven’t seen the same jump in price.
Officials point to several reasons why egg and chicken prices are not increasing at similar rates, despite the bird flu outbreak.
Carl J. Riccadonna, chief economist and head of the Office of Economic Analysis for the state of Oregon, listed three primary reasons influencing the prices of both chickens sold for meat and egg-laying hens.
First, egg-laying hens live longer than the broiler chickens destined for meat.
“A broiler chicken has a relatively short life cycle relative to an egg-producer, so the former has less time to contract disease, and also it is more quickly replaced if the flock has to be destroyed,” Riccadonna said.
It takes longer for a hen to reach egg-laying maturity, which means that the disruption to egg production has a longer impact.
“Replacing an egg-producing flock takes longer, and hence the disruption to egg production is sustained for a longer period — thereby exacerbating supply-chain disruptions and price volatility,” he said.
But there might be a silver lining.
“Reading between the lines, the fact that chicken meat prices have been less disrupted by bird flu relative to eggs should provide some cold comfort that the egg price spike is on course to moderate,” he said.
The second factor, is bird flu has been more severe in certain states, “so it may be impacting egg-producing states more severely than poultry-meat producing states.”
Statistics from the United States Department of Agriculture show top egg-producing states are Iowa, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Texas, with Georgia a close sixth. Oregon, at 684.4 million eggs produced in 2023, is far behind the leading state, Iowa, which produced 13.4 billion eggs.
The same source shows top chicken meat–producing states are Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas. Oregon isn’t even on the map as a significant producer of broiler hens.
A final factor, Riccadonna said, may be price elasticity and substitutability.
“If eggs are an input to a process or recipe it is hard to substitute, whereas chicken can more readily be replaced with other sources of protein, such as turkey,” he said.
According to the April 11 weekly USDA report of egg prices, Egg Markets Overview, the retail price for a dozen conventional caged large white eggs was $4.28, a 30-cent increase over April 4.
The report noted: “Even though shell egg demand is improving into the final marketing week ahead of Easter weekend, it continues to lag behind current expectations and past Easter trends.”
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor, in February, the Consumer Price Index for eggs increased 10.4% in January and 5.9% in February.
