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Oregon Country Fair weekend has warmed by about 7 degrees since the 1970s, according to a nearly six-decade analysis of temperature data. The state climatologist attributes half that jump to human-caused climate change, with the rest driven by natural variability. This year's fair is forecasted to bring a welcome break from 90-degree days.
Longtime attendees of the Oregon Country Fair recall that even in its early days, lying in the open meadows without shade was hot.
So hot that it’s part of the reason people started shedding their clothes, according to preeminent Oregon Country Fair historian Suzi Prozanski. That was during a 1970s heat wave, Prozanski documents — around the same time the event was evolving from a Renaissance faire into the three-day peachy celebration near Veneta that we know today.
Even then, temperatures were already hitting the high 90s. But what was once natural summer variation in temperature has become the norm, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data from Eugene Airport.
Lookout Eugene-Springfield pulled over five decades temperature data for the fair’s typical weekend dates — the second weekend of July — and analyzed the data with the Oregon state climatologist.
These temperatures are part long-term climate records, which track patterns in temperature, rainfall and other conditions over periods of about 30 years to establish what is considered normal for a region.
Comparing decade averages, fair weekend now runs about 7 degrees hotter than it did when it started out in 1969 and the 1970s.
Larry O’Neill, state climatologist and associate professor in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University, attributes about half of the 7-degree jump to human-caused climate change, which comes from activities like burning fossil fuels for energy and transportation.
Overall, western Oregon has warmed by about 3 degrees since the 1950s and ’60s, O’Neill said. That means a 90-degree day back then is more like a 93-degree day now.
The 3-degree signal shows up not only in daytime highs but also in nighttime lows. Minimum temperatures averaged about 50 degrees in the 1970s and now sit closer to 53 degrees in the 2020s. These minimum temperatures show that nights are not cooling off like they once were, when they offered more reprieve from hot days — for the landscape and people alike.
Temperatures over the decades
Maximum temperatures over fair weekend in the 1970s bounced around from the 60s through the 80s range. Just one weekend that decade averaged above 90 degrees.
Natural variability is still in the mix, though — like the strong El Niño that pushed up three 90-degree weekend averages in the 1990s. Those scorching weekends took a break in the 2000s, when fair weekends brought comfortable averages in the 70s and 80s.
In the following decade, average high temperatures dipped below the 80s less frequently.
And in the last six years, the 2020s, there have been no weekends with average highs in the 70s. And fairgoers have experienced three weekends averaging in the 90s.
“Yes, summer is warm. Some summers are warmer than others, but now we’re just getting persistently warmer summers nearly every year,” O’Neill said. “Around 90 degrees Fahrenheit is when a lot of studies start to show that you start to get increased incidence of heat exposure and heat illness.”
Heat makes people sick when the body can’t cool itself fast enough. As a person’s body becomes warmer, the heart works harder to pump blood and strains other organs in the process. People often feel cramps, sweating and fatigue, and in extreme cases, people can lose consciousness in a heatstroke.
Staying safe at fair
Children, pregnant people and the elderly are especially vulnerable to extreme heat when their bodies are already working harder to regulate temperature, and so are people who are physically exerting themselves outdoors like workers, athletes and performers.
In an email to Lookout Eugene-Springfield, Oregon Country Fair Marketing Manager Vanessa Roy said the fair has made adjustments in response to the rising heat.
“We have increased our shade structures and always have free-flowing cool water and misting stations, as well as mobile misters around” the fair, she said.
This year, the fair is offering cooling towels for purchase at its five commemorative sales booths. Bandannas, which can be dampened for a similar cooling effect, are also available for sale.
In an emergency, White Bird Rock Medicine has two locations on-site: Big Bird at Main Stage and Little Wing in Xavanadu. Info booths and fair staff can radio for medical assistance or help direct someone to the nearest location.
“Take it easy, stay hydrated, sun hats and sunscreen are encouraged, and remember that you are on Fair time when you get on to the path,” Roy said.
Highs at this year’s fair are forecast to be in the pleasant 80s, with morning lows in the 50s. It will be breezy, but not strong enough for a tent to flip or blow away.
As National Weather Service meteorologist Tyler Kranz put it, “The weather looks to be pretty much as good as it gets this time of year.”
