Dramatic swings mark this year’s climate in Eugene, Springfield

In 2025, the seasons didn’t ease from one to the next. They abruptly swung from wet winter days to drought and wildfire risk — and then back to soaking storms.

To put that into context, it helps to take a quick step back. What do we mean when we talk about climate?

Climate is a period of time, typically measured over about 30 years, that reflects a region’s long-term patterns in things like rainfall and temperature, setting the range of what’s considered normal. Climate helps shape expectations and forecasts, but weather is what actually happens day-to-day.

But with 2025 just about in the books, the weather experienced becomes part of the climate record.

This year, precipitation — or, sometimes, the lack of it — was the backdrop of dramatic seasonal swings, showing up as a historic dry spell, a risky wildfire season and relentless atmospheric rivers.

Lookout Eugene-Springfield reviewed those shifts and what they may signal heading into next year with state climatologist and Eugene resident Larry O’Neill.

A historic dry spell 

Snowpack ran well above normal into March, giving the water year a strong head start. Reservoirs filled early — a saving grace when conditions flipped quickly around April 10.

Normally, the spring months deliver about 25% to 30% of Oregon’s annual rainfall. But this year, the rain largely shut off around April.

Eugene went on to experience one of its driest and warmest stretches on record, dating back to 1939. The dry spring and early summer melted the snowpack faster than usual and pushed the region into severe drought by late summer and early fall.

Every part of Lane County ended up in drought, with nearly 73% of the county classified as severe, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Local leaders did not declare a drought emergency, but dry conditions strained water supplies and raised fire concerns.

Over the past decade, both the severity of drought and the amount of land affected have increased. The dry spell this year is considered natural variability — not yet a long enough pattern to clearly tie it to climate change.

What it looked like

Unusually dry conditions helped fuel one of Eugene’s worst allergy seasons on record, with pollen levels peaking in June as plants released pollen earlier and more intensely. The region’s notoriously bad allergy seasons are now longer by 39 days, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, compared with the 1970s.

By early summer, the landscape around Eugene and Springfield looked like a forgotten houseplant — once green and thriving, now tall, yellowing and brittle. When rain finally arrived, water pooled on hardened soil and soaked in slowly. A June rain helped some, but much of that moisture likely evaporated.

The early wet winter in 2024 and into this year also fueled a thick growth of grass and shrubs. When those plants dried out, they turned crisp and brittle, adding fuel to fire danger across the region.

Modest but visible wildfire season

The warm, dry spring and early summer raised concerns heading into fire season. But locally, wildfire activity never reached its worst-case potential. Some of that came down to luck. Much of it came from preparation, including quick responses from fire crews and investments in wildfire detection cameras.

Even so, the season was costly. Federally managed fire costs totaled about $117 million in Oregon, while statewide firefighting costs reached roughly $146 million. Of that, about $78 million was spent in Lane County.

Fires burned 17,618 acres in Lane County this year. About 96% of that was the Emigrant Fire on the county’s eastern edge — an explosive blaze that spread so quickly and intensely it generated its own weather and cloud formation.

Most of the Emigrant Fire’s smoke stayed in the mountains and foothills, though haze occasionally drifted into Springfield and Eugene. Smoke-related air quality impacts were sporadic in August and September and generally stayed in the moderate range.

August brought a surge of dry lightning, adding another layer of risk. One band of thunderstorms delivered 103 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes across Lane County in just a couple of days. 

While lightning activity has trended lower during the past decade compared with the 1990s and 2000s, the drought-stricken landscape made even a relatively typical lightning event dangerous.

What it looked like

While the season burned fewer acres overall, it still hit close to home, with several fires igniting nearer to towns and neighborhoods than in recent years, wildfire officials said.

For some, the sights were jarring. For others, they were becoming familiar. Eugene residents watched smoke rise from Spencer Butte. In Oakridge, football practice continued as air tankers dropped retardant on the nearby Aubrey Mountain Fire.

The fires also prompted evacuations in places, including Goshen. As the Hideaway Hills Fire spread, neighbors rushed to protect homes and livestock, forming an informal response network. With quick action from residents and support from first responders, crews held the fire to about 3½ acres.

Back-to-back atmospheric rivers 

Often described as rivers in the sky, atmospheric rivers typically signal the end of wildfire season. This year, they became nearly incessant from late October through the end of December, delivering about 12 inches of rain in the fall and pushing the year’s total to roughly 32 inches as of Dec. 26.

It’s the type of weather that helps replenish the water supply, but can also cause issues like flooding, especially in recent years.

Scientists say the increase in stronger, more frequent atmospheric rivers is a sign of climate change and part of the planet’s long-term warming.

And it’s not just how much rain falls, but how it falls. As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture. When strong winds push that moisture inland, it can be released all at once — like wringing out a sponge — leading to heavier, faster rainfall. 

What it looked like

By late October, the storms became part of daily life. Eugene and Springfield residents went about their weekends despite steady rain — from a soaked Ducks game to muddy festival grounds on Mount Pisgah.

Through November and December, people tracked forecasts almost as closely as forecasters did, watching one storm after another line up toward the holidays. Flood warnings popped up for nearby rivers, and gusty winds brought a few power outages, though nothing widespread.

Looking ahead 

What we experienced in 2025 could repeat itself. Winters are likely to continue getting wetter as a stronger jet stream delivers more frequent and heavier atmospheric rivers. 

At the same time, springs and summers are projected to trend drier. A stronger, more persistent high-pressure system could deflect storms north, cutting off rainfall during months that are critical for refilling soil moisture.

Snowpack is also expected to shrink and melt earlier, reducing natural water storage just as demand begins to rise. That combination — less spring rain and earlier snowmelt — raises concern for longer fire seasons and higher irrigation demand.

Taken together, the outlook points to a future with more water arriving all at once in winter and less available when it’s needed most. That shift underscores growing pressure on reservoirs, irrigation systems and long-term water storage as the region moves into 2026 and beyond.