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The National Weather Service says that unlike the storm that blew into the Northwest last week, and which went farther north and mostly missed Lane County, this one is expected to bring 2 or 3 inches of rain to the southern Willamette Valley and possibly snow on the Cascades passes.
The latest in a string of atmospheric rivers is due to hit Lane County Thursday, Dec. 18, with forecasters predicting at least 2 to 3 inches of rain — potentially twice that in some areas — and triggering a flood watch for northwest Oregon.
Forecasters also expect high winds beginning Tuesday night, with gusts possibly reaching 60-70 mph along the coast and 45 mph in the Willamette Valley. The winds, combined with wet soil conditions, could knock down trees and lead to isolated power outages, forecasters said.
Thursday’s atmospheric river — essentially a long band of concentrated moisture that moves through the air like a river in the sky — is similar to one that flowed into the Pacific Northwest last week, but with an important difference for residents of the southern Willamette Valley: While last week’s event mostly hammered areas north of the Columbia River, this one is headed more to the south, said Lee Picard, a meteorologist in the Portland office of the National Weather Service.
But there is good news for Lane County, Picard said Tuesday: Because the county largely dodged last week’s storm, “the ground is not nearly as wet to begin with, so the Lane County area may be able to handle a little bit more rain before we start seeing the kind of impacts that are going on in Washington. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.”
Another difference, Picard said, is that the new atmospheric river appears to be moving faster than last week’s storm, which could result in less rain over the county.
Nevertheless, for the 24-hour period beginning Thursday morning, Picard is forecasting 2 to 3½ inches of rain for the Willamette Valley and 3 to 5 inches in the Coast Range and Cascade Mountains areas.
“And chances are good that somebody is going to see something on the order of 5, 6, 7 inches,” he said.
“By the time people are making their Thursday morning commute, it will already be raining pretty good and will continue through Thursday night and into early Friday,” he said.
Hence the flood watch issued by the weather service, in effect from late Wednesday night to late Friday night.
Heavy rain could trigger what’s called “urban flooding” — standing water on roadways, overflowing culverts, “nuisance spots that people know collect water,” Picard said.
As runoff makes its way to rivers and streams, those will rise by Friday afternoon, he said, but forecasters are not predicting river flooding in the Eugene-Springfield area.
Coastal areas may be a different story, he said, because the Coast Range area is expected to receive more rain.
Snow accumulation could affect travel over Cascade passes, but generally warming temperatures expected with the atmospheric river have decreased overall chances for snowfall.
Soggy end to December
Picard said the long-range forecast for the last two weeks of December is for “more rounds of heavy rainfall,” along with snow in the Cascades and a chance of high winds beginning a day or two before Christmas.
He offered two final bits of advice.
“If people live in flood-prone areas, just stay tuned to the forecast,” he said. “River forecasts can change pretty quickly.”
And he urged drivers to resist the temptation to drive through floodwaters. Most flood-related deaths occur in vehicles, he said: “So the safest thing people can do is just stay out of floodwaters, because those deaths are preventable.”
