QuickTake:

But Eugene and Springfield officials highlighted some upcoming projects and ongoing initiatives that they hope will be bright spots in the local economy.

An Oregon economist presented a sobering picture of Oregon and Lane County’s economic outlook.

John Tapogna, public policy consultant and Oregon economic analyst, highlighted the factors behind the stagnation of economic growth across much of the region — and the country — during a panel hosted by the Eugene Chamber of Commerce on Thursday, Nov. 13.

“Today, Oregon finds itself in a changing nation. It’s an older nation; it’s less mobile; birth rates have been falling; immigration has stalled,” Tapogna said. “Economic growth is no longer guaranteed, and it doesn’t happen without intentional effort. So now the choice facing Oregon is: Start pursuing modest, deliberate economic growth, or accept the cost of standing still.”

Tapogna broke down economic forces shaping Lane County and the state: a death rate exceeding the birth rate, a tax system straining personal incomes, the Public Employee Retirement System, known as PERS, draining local government resources and stagnating employment. He also cited housing scarcity, wildfires, a poorly performing K-12 education system, overreliance on income tax and deeply rooted cultural ambivalence surrounding growth.

​Over the last five years, job growth in Lane County has slowed. In January 2020, there were 174,657 nonfarm jobs in the county. In January of this year, the number of jobs had inched up to 179,342, a 2.6% increase.

Bright spots locally

Eugene and Springfield officials highlighted some upcoming projects that they believe will combat the decline in growth. 

These include the Glenwood redevelopment, as well as expansion plans to revitalize Eugene’s downtown. According to city officials, these projects aim not only to add more life and bustle to the city, but should also grow property tax revenue when completed, helping alleviate some of the city’s budget woes.

Other mentions included deeper collaboration between Eugene and the University of Oregon, as well as the Eugene Airport expansion, which, with additions, could bring in more flight traffic and opportunity from surrounding counties.

Tapogna said the five years ahead look more different than any five-year period in history in terms of demographics and technology.

“If we fail to adapt, we are just locking ourselves into a future stagnation, scarcity and decline,” Tapogna said. “But this is still a choice. We can choose to modernize and build a state that remains.”