Mailbag: What are reasonable expectations for Dan Lanning's first year?

Plus: Oregon State as perennial bowl contenders, Hayward Field’s recruiting prowess, Dana does Hollywood and what’s next for the ACHA D1-bound Oregon hockey team.

Dan Lanning has 16 days until national signing day. I’d hate to waste any time on an intro. So let’s just jump right into this week’s mailbag, which includes answers to questions about Oregon State, Bob Saget, UO hockey, MKA’s Fir problem, Hayward Field, The Athletic’s sale to The New York Times and Dana Altman’s rampage through Los Angeles.

Let’s begin.

What should be considered a successful first season for the Ducks under Dan Lanning? — Jordan

OK, Jordan. I hate to do this to you, but let me take you back to the Redbox Bowl. 

It’s New Year’s Eve 2018. Oregon just beat Michigan State 7-6. Troy Dye is running around the field with Michigan State’s defensive MVP trophy, Oregon’s coaches and boosters are walking up and down Levi’s Stadium’s turf looking for Mario Cristobal’s wedding ring and, despite a game that saw more punts than points, the feeling of progress filled the air. 

Said Cristobal — who found his ring back where he left it in his locker — after things calmed down: 

“Nine wins, that’s something,” he said. “I think we’re just getting started.” 

The Ducks won the Rose Bowl a year later.

I use this example not to force you to relive the Redbox Bowl, but to recall that feeling afterward of knowing that Oregon had the right coach and that the pieces were in place to reasonably expect the team to compete at a high level going into Year 2. 

That’s what the expectation should be.

I don’t expect Lanning to compete for a national championship this season. There’s somehow more questions at quarterback than a few months ago, the defense lost three of its best players1 and the recruiting class is currently sitting 64th in the country.

And, let’s face it: It’s Lanning’s first year as a head coach and he’s likely to make some mistakes. 

But even what’s left of this roster is more talented — minus Herbert, Justin — than what Cristobal inherited, and Lanning’s first-year paycheck of $4.6 million — Cristobal earned $2.5 million in 2018 — means that expectations should still be reasonably high. It’s the Pac-12. Oregon should compete for a conference title. 

If you’re wanting numbers: Eight wins should probably be the floor of expectation, with anything more than 10 coming as gravy. But the real expectation should be this: If Lanning was hired to make Oregon a playoff contender, you should have some concrete evidence pointing in that direction by the end of Year 1. 

And maybe an offense a little less reliant on the punter. 

So Dana Altman seems to be having a pretty good weekend. How does knocking off two top LA teams rank among his best road trips? — Alec E.

Dana’s had some bangers on the road. And with apologies to the 2016 road trip that saw the Ducks end Arizona’s 49-game winning streak at McKale Center, and the 2015 Bay Area sweep that sparked a seven-game winning streak to close that season, nothing comes particularly close to what the Ducks just did. 

Oregon beat No. 3 UCLA 84-81 on Thursday at Pauley Pavilion. Oregon beat No. 5 USC 79-69 at the Galen Center on Saturday. This was a team that lost 81-49 to BYU and 78-49 to Houston in an eight-day span just two months ago. And now, they’re the first team since 1975-76 Clemson to beat two AP top-five teams on the road within a five-day span. 

It was such an impressive stretch that I nearly tweeted a complaint about Oregon’s exclusion from the top 25 this week. I get that the Ducks have six losses and that everyone else within the top 25 have four or less. But a roster with four new pieces in the starting lineup has only one loss since Dec. 15 — and that was an eight-point loss to No. 1 Baylor. 

I said “nearly tweeted,” because I quickly remembered my days as a AP top-25 voter and realized how happy and freeing my life has been since that train wreck ended. 

Anyways: It’s Jan. 18 and the Ducks are going to the Sweet 16. Book it. 

What’s your favorite Bob Saget bit? — Kevin

I liked Bob Saget. His roast appearances on Comedy Central were funny and he seemed like an affable person — as the thousands of tributes since his death last week can attest. 

But I honestly didn’t listen to a bunch of his stand-up. I think I’ve probably heard more stories about Saget than I’ve actually listened to him as a comedian. 

But I do remember 5-year-old Tyson watching America’s Funniest Home Videos on Sunday nights thinking that Saget, with his jokes and voices, was the funniest person on the planet. Some people still probably thought that. That’s got to feel pretty cool.

What a life. 

If any other 90s kids want a shot of nostalgia, the intro here packs a punch. 

That Oregon State bowl game was a real dud, especially after a successful season (especially at home). Can the Beavers take that next step into being a bowl team each season? I like the coach and the stadium will look great. But can they build a consistent winner? — Corey Brock

Progress isn’t always linear. So while I want to say yes to this question — I think Jonathan Smith is doing one of the best jobs in the Pac-12 — I could see them taking a slight step back this fall. The 2021 season was pretty storybook for the Beavers. OSU beat USC in Los Angeles for the first time in 61 years, scored 42 points in a win over Pac-12 champion Utah and comfortably reached the postseason for the first time since 2013. This all came in a season that saw the Beavers swap Sam Noyer for Chance Nolan at quarterback following a Week 1 loss at Purdue. The LA Bowl loss to Utah State ended the season with a whimper, but otherwise I don’t think anyone could have squeezed more out of the program. 

But Oregon State’s roster ranked 49th in talent in 2021, per 247Sports. Its 2022 recruiting class ranks 50th. Smith is efficient at targeting players that fit his program and you saw the results of that this year. What worries me is that without any sort of noticeable push in talent acquisition, I don’t think the Beavers have the depth to survive a big injury season — like the Ducks had in 2021. Those happen every few years and some teams have means to weather it and still contend. I don’t know if Oregon State is there yet. Having the stadium complete before the 2023 season will be a huge help. 

It will be interesting to see OSU’s role in the portal moving forward. Smith has shown a willingness to take on all sorts of transfers since he arrived in 2018, and I wonder with his offense and acumen whether Oregon State could become an attractive option for relevant transfer quarterbacks in the future. 

I’ve got one more question. The transfer portal. How does this information come to light? Do some reporters have access to it, or is it purely sourced material? — Corey B.

One morning I woke up, drank some coffee, took a shower and opened up my closet to grab some clothes and it was just there. The darnedest thing. Doesn’t even make a cool sound when you step in and out. You just walk through and all of a sudden you’re in a dorm room with Wedding Crashers and Animal House posters, a few unopened books and far less anxiety.

Or: It’s a mix. Most media organizations — 247, The Athletic, ESPN — have at least someone with direct access. But it can often come sourced, too. Reporters may know someone with direct access, or they’ll be given a heads up by the player or parent, ect.

Is UO ever going to get rid of the current basketball floor or is that thing just here to stay? — Brooks

I guess this is one of those things that happens when you’ve covered the same team for a bit, but I really never notice the floor. That’s impressive, because I remember hating it the first time I saw it on TV. Even back in 2011 when it debuted in a 68-62 win over USC, I thought it looked bad on screen. Points for creativity, but the brown and mustard hues of the fir trees pattering the court didn’t exactly come across as appetizing. It looks better in person, which is called irony, boys and girls. 

From 2011 release from Nike, quoting VP for design and special projects Tinker Hatfield: 

“We wanted to design the most iconic television presence possible for the University of Oregon by conjuring up a highly unique and visible basketball floor design.” 

And from a 2011 review from Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Eisenberg: 

“Considering how much thought went into everything from the steeply tiered seats to the duck’s epic entrance from the rafters to the “Deep In the Woods” slogan on the floor, it’s tough to believe nobody bothered to check how the court would look on TV. Whether that’s true or whether somebody just signed off on the TV image too quickly, that’s a pretty brutal oversight.”

That type of criticism calmed down after a while. And they did accomplish their goal of having viewers know it’s an Oregon game as soon as they flip to the channel. I don’t know how many people truly love it, but changing it isn’t high on the priority list. 

Tyson, so you think Lanning can get the entire Georgia defense to transfer? Actually, I have a real question: Do you cover track and field at Oregon? If so, what impact are the glorious new digs having on recruiting? After the project was announced a few years ago and during construction, many athletes transferred out. They had no home track. Hoping the flip side is a recruiting boon. — Drex Heikes

Hey, he’s recruited a lot of those guys once before. There’s always a chance a few could come swing by the Northwest. I think the roster could make room. 

I’m way over my skis on T&F recruiting. I never covered Oregon’s track program when I was with The Oregonian because we had the best track coverage in the country already thanks to Ken Goe. And it wasn’t really The Athletic’s cup of tea.

But I did tour the new Hayward Field this spring, and it’s spectacular. Truly. The entire time walking around the $270 million remodel I kept thinking that there was no way the football program was going to stand by and let the track program have the best facilities on campus2. Because that’s what they are. As cool as Hayward looks from above, the entire underbelly of the stadium can be used as a year-round indoor training center. There’s 200,000 square feet of track surface used in there.

Said Oregon track and field coach Robert Johnson when Hayward opened last year:

“Hayward was really nice before. It lacked a lot of the amenities for the athlete. And one of the things I’m most proud of is that everything that was done here was for the athlete and making sure they can maximize it 365 days a year.”

There’s no way this doesn’t help with recruiting.

There’s been an understandable buzz about Lanning coming to Eugene, but I’m curious on your thoughts about his most impactful assistant coaching hire. Also, any side commentary on the “mighty” Oregon hockey team and their planned ascendency to ACHA Division I next season? Can we expect some fringe hockey coverage from time to time? — Pat.

I like this question for three reasons. 

1. I can plug this story from a couple weeks ago about the hiring of Tosh Luopi, Oregon’s new defensive coordinator. The Ducks are paying him $1.7 million a year. I hope they get some return on that. 

2. I can plug something Aidan and I are doing on the podcast. Each episode for the coming weeks we’re going to do a deep-dive into each of Oregon’s new hires. Loosely, we’re calling it, “Things we learned on the internet about Oregon’s new staff.” It should be riveting. 

3. Can we expect some fringe hockey coverage from time to time? 

Pat. I’m blushing. The whole point of starting The I-5 Corridor was to Trojan Horse more hockey coverage into the area. And the Oregon club team is a great, but sometimes confusing story.

It’s a great story because making the leap from ACHA Division II to ACHA Division I is no joke. It’s a major step up in competition and exposure for a program that’s already done a pretty solid job of promoting itself. 

But it can be confusing because I’ve seen a few stories written about Oregon’s hockey team “going D-I.” And while that’s technically true, the ACHA is far from NCAA hockey. There’s a lot of talent. It’s competitive. The Ducks are back-to-back Pac-8 champions. But it’s still largely funded out of the pockets of the club and the players. They’re not on scholarship. There’s a long way to go. 

But this is progress. 

Take Arizona State for example. The Sun Devils were one of the ACHA’s most successful programs, reaching the Division I national tournament 10 times after moving up from D-II in 1993. In the spring of 2014, ASU won its first ACHA national championship. That fall, ASU athletic director Ray Anderson announced $32 million had been donated to bring the program in NCAA D-I level. 

The Sun Devil’s reached the NCAA Tournament in just their third season in 2019. I think they’re a sleeping giant as long as they get those kids from Minnesota and North Dakota to come out and visit in the winter. 

ASU making the leap would conceivably make it easier for Oregon to follow. But considering Matthew Knight Arena wasn’t built with hockey dimensions in mind, the program is going to have to build a whole lot more momentum before it can credibly start knocking on Rob Mullens’ door. Like Oregon, Arizona State didn’t have a hockey facility on campus and its new $115 million, 5,000-seat arena is set to open this fall. 

That’s a chunk of change. But Mac Court with a facelift would make for a pretty cool hockey venue, no? 

Any thoughts on The Athletic’s sale to the NYT? — Zach

I think it’s a fine spot for them to land. It’s not quite exactly accomplishing their goal of draining every newspaper dry, but it’s far from the failure that a lot of The Athletic’s naysayers were hoping for. A journalism company that didn’t exist in 2015 was bought for $550 million by The New York Times. And while there’s obviously going to be some concern about how new owners approach things — here’s to not having to explain to someone in Manhattan about why someone in Portland is expensing mileage to Eugene all the time — ending up in the hands of the Grey Lady is about as steady as it gets in the biz these days. 

I’m just happy for my former colleagues who no longer have this hanging over their heads. It had certainly been on minds for the better part of the last two years. 

It’s still a little wild to think about. When I joined in 2018 there was little to no brand recognition. I can’t tell you how many people on the phone or in person asked, “The Athletic? What’s that?” 

Boy, would hate to go back to that again.

— Tyson Alger