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The Ducks are 4-0 for the first time since 2014 and have gotten there in relatively unconventional fashion.
(Nate Heaukulani celebrates after his first-career interception. Issac Wasserman/GoDucks.com)
It doesn’t really make sense, does it?
Oregon has the nation’s 51st-best offense and the 103rd-best defense based on total yardage. Oregon’s starting quarterback is completing just 57 percent of his passes, the Ducks have one player ranked within the top 25 of the conference in receiving yards and only 12 teams in the country compile more penalty yards per game. The Ducks’ best player has played 30 snaps, and of the two players in the Pac-12 who have recorded 14 tackles in a game this year, one of them is out for the season on Oregon’s sideline.
Yet here the Ducks are with a 4-0 record for the first time since 2014. They’ve beaten Ohio State on the road, are in control of the Pac-12 and have inserted themselves right into the College Football Playoff race with a No. 3 ranking in the AP Poll.
Oregon is playing winning football. How? The I-5 Corridor took a look at the numbers that have made up the Ducks’ perfect (in the standings) start.
19.25: When everyone else in the conference has a loss, being 4-0 with an average win of 19.25 points is nothing to complain about. But if it feels like these 4-0 Ducks aren’t beating teams like previous 4-0 Ducks, it’s because you’re mostly right.
Here are the 10 Oregon teams that reached 4-0 since 2000 and their average margin of victory through four games:
2001 Ducks
Average margin of victory through first four games: 9 points
Final record: 11-1
2002 Ducks
Average margin of victory: 27 points
Final record: 7-6
2003 Ducks
Average margin of victory: 14.5 points
Final record: 8-5
2006 Ducks
Average margin of victory: 20.25 points
Final record: 7-6
2007 Ducks
Average margin of victory: 27 points
Final record: 9-4
2010 Ducks
Average Margin of victory: 46.25 points
Final record: 12-1
2012 Ducks
Average margin of victory: 24.5 points
Final record: 12-1
2013 Ducks
Average margin of victory: 49 points
Final record: 11-2
2014 Ducks
Average margin of victory: 27.25 points
Final record: 13-2
2021 Ducks
Average margin of victory: 19.25 points
Final record: TBD
A couple thoughts here:
The 2013 Ducks team was as good as any Oregon team in history — until November. What could have been. Here’s a question: If Oregon somehow completes the comeback that year against Stanford — or Marcus Mariota didn’t get hurt — is Mark Helfrich still the coach in Eugene? Think about it a bit.
Oregon’s current margin of victory is the third-lowest for 4-0 UO teams since 2000. And that could mean nothing — 2001’s 9-points per victory is the lowest and ended up being one of the best teams in UO history.
4: The Ducks aren’t scoring 50 points per game and they’re allowing plenty of yardage on defense. The main reason Oregon is undefeated is an opportunistic and clutch defense that’s clamped down when needed most. The Ducks have forced four turnovers inside the red zone, including three interceptions.
The Ducks had just five interceptions in all of 2020.
12: Leading that charge is free safety Verone McKinley III. McKinley picked off four passes as a redshirt freshman in 2019 and while he only had one in 2020, he’s already at four here a third of the way into 2021. He’s on pace for 12, which would place him one shy of George Shaw’s single-season Oregon mark of 13 set in 1951.
The team is on pace for 27 interceptions, one more than 2012’s record of 26.
50: Oregon’s current turnover margin is plus-3 a game. That’s 50 percent better than the No. 2 team in the country.
How far have the Ducks come here? In Cristobal’s first year at Oregon, the Ducks lost nine turnovers in September. In 2021, the Ducks lost one and have yet to throw an interception.
30: Kayvon Thibodeaux looked elite in the first quarter of the first game of the season. And that’s mostly all we’ve seen of Oregon’s third-year defensive end. Thibodeaux played 19 snaps in Week 1, then returned in Week 4 for another 11 to make it 30 on the year.
Oregon ranks 103rd in the country in total defense, allowing 426.5 yards per game — Oregon’s highest total since 2016.
“We’ll see if he’s good enough shape to play an entire game,” Cristobal said. “He should be. There were no issues and physical limitations (against Arizona).”
100: In one of the more improbable storylines of the first four weeks: Oregon place kicker Camden Lewis has made 100 percent of his attempts. He’s perfect after touchdowns and now 5-of-5 on field goal attempts — he made one of three last year before being benched. It’s aided an Oregon offense that has now scored on 18 of its 19 trips to the red zone this year, a percentage (94.4) that ranks 15th in the country.
15: After CJ Verdell carried the ball 11 times for 45 yards in Oregon’s win over Arizona, Cristobal was asked if the fourth-year starter was on some sort of pitch count. It’s no secret that Verdell’s been banged up for much of his career, but Cristobal said the Pac-12’s active career leader in rushing yardage was fine.
Verdell is a “great player, critically important to our operation and will continue to do great things for the Ducks,” Cristobal said. The game just didn’t come to him Saturday.
It’s not like Verdell’s numbers are off from his career norms. His 15 carries per game are his most since his freshman year (15.53), and his 5.6 yards per carry is second-best next to 2019’s 6.2. And this is with a more-than-adequate sidekick in Travis Dye (41 carries, 286 yards) and a quarterback in Anthony Brown whose 42 rushing attempts have him on pace (126) for the most Oregon quarterback carries since Marcus Mariota in 2014.
29: Verdell’s been doing it the tough way, too. Only 29 percent of his rushing yards have come on runs longer than 10 or more yards. Pro Football Focus calls these “breakaway runs,” and past years in Verdell’s career have seen significantly higher totals of 40, 41 and 33 percent.
29: On Saturday I pondered whether or not Brown’s totaled up a hospital tab for some of his receivers.
(I also realize this was probably a weird tweet in the timeline for anyone not watching the game. I digress.)
The guy has a cannon, though he and the Ducks have barely utilized it. Brown has just four completions of 14 attempts when targeting receivers 20 yards or more downfield, according to PFF. That’s the same number of completions as Charlie Brewer, the quarterback who started the season with Utah, was benched, then quit the team. Brown’s completed just 29 percent of those throws, ranking 90th nationally.
12: Johnny Johnson III is Brown’s favorite target. Johnson leads the Ducks with 148 yards (10 catches) which ranks 25th (!) in the Pac-12. Jaylon Redd has only caught four passes and his 103 yards is second-most on the team. In short, Brown likes to spread it out. In fact, 12 players have caught passes this season, surpassing 2020’s total of 11.
55: Oregon receivers were perceived as one of the deepest groups on the team coming into the season, but the actual production hasn’t quite lined up with preseason expectations. The Ducks are throwing to the WRs, sure. Of Oregon’s 104 attempts, 62 percent have targeted wide receivers. But of Oregon’s 61 completions, only 55 percent have been caught by wide receivers.
Running backs and tight ends make up half of Oregon’s top 10 players in receptions.
2: Only two Pac-12 players have recorded 14 tackles in a game this year. One is Justin Flowe, who did it in Week 1 against Fresno State. The other was Noah Sewell this past weekend against Arizona. With Flowe out for the season with a foot injury, Sewell’s consistency is all the more important. The second-year freshman has four or more tackles in every game he’s played for the Ducks, with five or more in Oregon’s last eight games.
74: DJ Johnson continues to find his way on the field. Remember, Johnson came to Oregon from Miami before the 2018 season as a freakish 270-pound defensive end. Then last year he switched to tight end and caught 10 passes for 113 yards and three touchdowns in seven games.
In the offseason, the Ducks added two premiere freshmen tight ends in Terrance Ferguson and Moliki Matavao, and Spencer Webb’s return to health would have naturally cut into Johnson’s snap count in 2021 — if he was only playing offense. But Oregon’s front-seven has been so thinned by injury here in the first month, Johnson has become Oregon’s first real two-way player since Charles Nelson played receiver and safety in 2015. Johnson’s played 39 snaps at tight end and 74 snaps at defensive end. Against Ohio State, he had an 11-yard third-down conversion, then the game-clinching sack.
“Whatever the team needs is wherever I’ll be,” Johnson said. “Just be ready to get in.”
0: The Ducks have no losses. None. Zip. Zero. Zilch. They haven’t blown a lead. They haven’t been blown out. On every Saturday they’ve done the simplest thing you can do in this sport: They scored more points than their opponents. So, yes, there are some concerning numbers. There is also a lot of season left for them to get better.
“I think we have a very resilient football team,” Cristobal said. “Games are won in different manners.”
— Tyson Alger
