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QuickTake:
Snowpack is 75% below average, and streamflows are already lower than normal this time of year.
As summer nears its midpoint, extreme drought has already reached parts of Lane County, putting the region on track for one of its driest summers on record.
Nearly 58% of Oregon is officially in a high level of drought with more than 86% of the state experiencing some degree of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Record-low snowpack last winter contributed to drought conditions statewide.
An update Tuesday, July 14, by the U.S. Drought Monitor, a joint project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, showed that a significant portion of Oregon was now in severe drought or above.
The weekly report assesses how unusual the dryness in the area is based on historical data. Climatologists measure how much moisture enters the system through precipitation versus how much moisture exits, via evaporation driven by temperature.
Typically, snowmelt from mountain peaks acts as a natural water supply, offsetting high summer moisture loss by slowly feeding rivers and streams.
In March of this year when snowpack is normally at its highest, the water content within it was about 75% below average. This marked the second-driest year on record since 1980, trailing only behind the severe drought of 2015.
Without the snowpack sustaining Oregon’s waterways, streams and rivers are already experiencing late summer streamflow levels, four to eight weeks ahead of schedule, according to Cameron Greenwood, a hydrologist at the Oregon Water Resources Department.
“The current water year as it stands is in a very poor spot,” Greenwood said. “We’re seeing record low streamflows across the state. In some places, we’re seeing the lowest we’ve ever recorded.”
Already depressed flows could mean rivers could reach further historically low levels in August. These conditions will force the Oregon Water Resources Department to regulate water use much earlier.
Strict water regulations can result in agricultural shutoffs.
In Oregon, all water belongs to the public. Therefore, for farms to use public water, they must file for water rights. When supplies drop, younger water rights owners could have their water supply curtailed or shut off to protect senior owners downstream.
“We’re in a very tough spot with water availability, and that translates to earlier than normal regulation for water users across the state — farmers, for example, but also municipalities,” Greenwood said.
Greenwood predicts water shutoffs may begin within the next two to three weeks in Lane County.
To protect their water availability, counties can submit a request for a drought declaration issued by the governor. This allows for access to state emergency water rights tools, such as the ability for water right holders to temporarily switch water sources.
Already this year, 21 of Oregon’s 36 counties have drought declarations.
Lane County has yet to submit a request for a drought declaration. However, Lane County’s emergency manager has been in conversation with the state’s regional watermaster, and they continue to monitor drought conditions, according to county spokesperson Devon Ashbridge.
A drought-ridden year like 2015 could be a preview of Oregon’s potential water future, Greenwood said.
“These are helpful illustrations of what future conditions could look like — with earlier declines in water availability, reduced inflows to reservoirs and an increased likelihood of earlier and more frequent regulation of water rights,” he said. “The scarcity of water in the seasons to come may become more challenging as conditions continue to warm.”
