Despite stigma, more businesses open than close in Oregon in recent decade

In 2023, following the end of the COVID pandemic, Oregon experienced more new business registrations than any other state in the nation.

It was part of anomalous growth in new business ventures across the U.S. following the pandemic, but Oregon has for most of the last decade seen significantly more new businesses register in the state than exit, according to an analysis from Richard Acquah-Sarpong, a doctoral candidate in applied economics at Oregon State University.

Acquah-Sarpong used data from the private-sector National Establishments Time Series Database and from the U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics.

Oregon’s entry/exit ratio, though nuanced by industry and geography, shows the state doing well on at least one measure of economic health despite widespread reporting and warnings from business groups that the state, and particularly its largest city, are in an economic death spiral or doom loop.

The positive entry/exit ratio is “a measure of the overall activity and adaptability of an economy,” Acquah-Sarpong said. A healthy number of new business registrations signals the state is a place ripe for innovation and job creation, whereas closures can signal economic stress or structural changes, he explained. And it’s an improvement from the early aughts.

Between the 2008 recession and 2014, more businesses left Oregon than set up shop, according to the data. That’s turned around since 2015, Acquah-Sarpong found, and new businesses have pretty consistently outpaced business closures in the state.

Damon Runberg, an economist at Business Oregon, the state’s economic development agency, has also written extensively about the state’s generally positive environment for startups and new ventures. He said in the last two years the state’s entrepreneurial ecosystem “seems to have dried up a little bit.” In 2024, about 9,500 new businesses registered in Oregon, compared to about 7,900 in 2025.

“Still, the number of new business establishments that opened in 2025 was almost 1,800 higher than what it was in 2015. That’s like 30% higher than what was happening in 2015, which was also a pretty stellar time as we were coming out of the Great Recession,” he said. “Where we’re at today is still in a really positive place relative to back then.”

He credits the state’s highly educated work force — Oregonians hold bachelor’s degrees at rates higher than most states and above the national average — as contributing to the entrepreneurial trends, as well as the state’s low barriers to entry for people wanting to open a business. There’s a solid support system from community groups, banks and universities that provide technical assistance for small businesses to grow and scale, he said.

Still, new businesses don’t necessarily mean boons to employment, and a new cafe employs far fewer people than a large factory. Runberg notes that there’s been considerable slowdown in job creation across the state, in part because more than 80% of new jobs in Oregon are created by the expansion of established businesses, not new ones. And though Oregon tends to be a good place to start a business, surveys show growing is harder, he said.

The state’s unemployment rate has risen steadily since 2023 and reached 5.2% in January, above the nationwide jobless rate of 4.3%.

Which businesses entering and where?

Acquah-Sarpong’s analysis shows that from 2012 to 2022, businesses offering services such as transportation, real estate, rentals, education, food and hospitality all opened at much higher rates than they closed in Oregon during that period — about 50% more openings than closures.

This was probably driven in part by a population that grew by roughly 10% in the same period, he said. That also contributed to the sector with the single largest net gain in new establishments between 2010 and 2022: public administration. That includes new establishments that perform functions for federal, state, tribal, and local governments, such as libraries, fire stations, schools and shelters.

Roughly 2.8 new public-sector establishments opened for every one that closed during that 10-year period.

The only sector that saw more exits than entries in Oregon during the last decade were firms that manage other companies and enterprises. The manufacturing sectors for wood, paper, chemicals, metals, machinery and electronics all saw stagnation — roughly equal exit and entry numbers over the last decade.

“This is consistent with the long-run challenges for manufacturing: automation, globalization, and industry consolidation — which have led to fewer total factories and mills even as output in some areas rises,” Acquah-Sarpong wrote.

Geographically, Acquah-Sarpong found Oregon’s rural counties have seen the most entrepreneurial stagnation, while urban counties see the higher entry and exit numbers. Counties in the northern part of the state tend to have the highest numbers of exits and entries, which comports with population trends, he said.

Runberg cautioned that the data showing expansion in public sector establishments does not mean the state has come to rely more heavily on a public rather than private workforce, and there’s been little growth in the state’s public workforce in recent years.

Headwinds

Runberg said the biggest economic headwind facing Oregon in the years ahead has to do with the nexus of business growth and population growth.

“We are one of the oldest states in the U.S., and we are seeing dramatic reductions in the size of our youth population,” he said. “It shifts who the consumers are, where they spend money.”

He said Oregon’s population looks more like Japan’s or those in western European countries where an aging population is looking to be supported by a smaller working population.

“This is not a doom and gloom statement, because if you go to those countries life is OK, but the nature of growth shifts differently,” he explained.

Policy decisions that encourage young people to move to Oregon would help, he said, namely ensuring there is greater job creation in sectors that provide quality of life and wages that young people want and would move for.

“We know that people move to Oregon at a faster pace when economic opportunity is available. So if jobs are available, we see faster growth. Some of our slowing net migration is a reflection of less economic opportunity, and we can’t sort of rest on our laurels,” he said.